The accumulated, persistent trade and economic imbalances between the south euro area (SEA) and the north euro area (NEA) countries brought about severe strains for the euro following the global financial crisis. This paper assesses alternative scenarios suggested to restore the trade imbalances...

This paper examines two issues. First, we compare, based on the ratio of output-gap variability to inflation variability, the monetary policy performance of eleven EMU countries for the whole period of the EMS. Second, we examine whether the introduction of an implicit inflation-targeting by the...

The primary objective of this paper is to use the Markov regime-switching modeling framework to study the credibility of monetary policy in five member countries of the European Monetary System (EMS) during the period 1979 to 1998. The five countries examined for this purpose are Austria,...

This paper provides the empirical framework to analyse the nature of currency crises by extending earlier work of Jeanne and Masson (2000) who suggest that a currency crisis model with multiple equilibria can be estimated using Markov regime switching (MRS) models. However, Jeanne and Masson...

In this paper we examine the nature of currency crises. We ascertain whether the currency crises of the European Monetary System (EMS) were based either on fundamentals, or on self-fulfilling market expectations driven by extrinsic uncertainty. In particular, we extend previous work of Jeanne...

We study the impact of credit risk determinants on the Romanian and Bulgarian banking systems using a structural Markov Regime-Switching vector autoregressive (MRS-SVAR) analysis. To capture changes in the domestic macroeconomic conditions as well as the spillover effects from the Greek crisis...

The Markov regime-switching modelling framework, with time-varying transition probabilities, is utilized to study the credibility of monetary policy in five member countries of the European Monetary System during the period 1979-98 (Austria, Belgium, France, Italy and the Netherlands). The...