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We analyze the evolution and drivers of inflation during the pandemic and the likely trajectory of inflation in the near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR) model. We report three main results. First, the decline...
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Global inflation has risen sharply from its lows in mid-2020, on rebounding global demand, supply bottlenecks, and soaring food and energy prices, especially since the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine. Markets expect inflation to peak in mid-2022 and then decline, but to remain elevated...
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In this paper, we assess how risk-sharing channels have evolved over time in the United States and the Euro Area, and whether they have operated as "complements" or "substitutes". In particular, we focus on the capital channel (income from cross-border ownership of productive assets), the credit...
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shock has remained fairly stable. Simulations from a non-linear DSGE model suggest that these empirical results are …
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find that an adverse oil supply shock has a negative effect on stock prices when oil inflation is low. In contrast, this … rates encourage firms to get highly leveraged. A negative oil shock in this scenario leads to a substantial increase in … shock, ameliorating the impact on the stock market. …
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