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We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial variables into contributions from country-specific uncertainty and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that the common component plays an important role in driving the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011306276
declined over time. The timing of the change coincides with the introduction of inflation targeting in the U.K. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011505897
We propose an extended time-varying parameter Vector Autoregression that allows for an evolving relationship between the variances of the shocks. Using this model, we show that the relationship between the conditional variance of GDP growth and the long-term interest rate has become weaker over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011554403
variables has declined systematically over time. In contrast, the response of inflation and the short-term interest rate to this … consistent with an increase in the monetary authorities' anti-inflation stance and a 'flattening' of the Phillips curve. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472799
This paper uses a FAVAR model with stochastic volatility to estimate the impact of uncertainty shocks on real income growth in US states. The results suggest that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the magnitude and the persistence of the response to uncertainty shocks across states....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011448758
common global uncertainty plays a primary role in explaining the volatility of inflation, interest rates and stock prices … uncertainty measures appear to be strongly countercyclical and positively correlated with inflation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011856363
" macroeconomic events. We examine this conjecture by studying Bayesian predictive distributions for output growth and inflation in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339756
variables has declined systematically over time. In contrast, the response of inflation and the short-term interest rate to this … consistent with an increase in the monetary authorities' anti-inflation stance and a 'flattening' of the Phillips curve. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011380989
Financial markets are central to the transmission of uncertainty shocks. This paper documents a new aspect of the interaction between the two by showing that uncertainty shocks have radically different macroeconomic implications depending on the state financial markets are in when they occur....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011380991
We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial variables into contributions from country-specific uncertainty and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that the common component plays an important role in driving the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011381007