This paper uses a time-varying Factor Augmented VAR to investigate the evolving transmission of monetary policy and demand shocks in the UK. Simultaneous estimation of time-varying impulse responses of a large set of macroeconomic variables and disaggregated prices suggest that the response of...

This paper uses a time-varying Factor Augmented VAR to investigate the evolving transmission of monetary policy and demand shocks in the UK. Simultaneous estimation of time-varying impulse responses of a large set of macroeconomic variables and disaggregated prices suggest that the response of...

Changes in monetary policy and shifts in dynamics of the macroeconomy are typically described using empirical models that only include a limited amount of information. Examples of such models include time-varying vector autoregressions that are estimated using output growth, inflation and a...

We fit a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR with stochastic volatility to the Federal Funds rate, GDP deflator inflation, real GDP growth, and the rate of growth of M2. We identify 4 shocks-monetary policy, demand non-policy, supply, and money demand-by imposing sign restrictions on...

Financial markets are central to the transmission of uncertainty shocks. This paper documents a new aspect of the interaction between the two by showing that uncertainty shocks have radically different macroeconomic implications depending on the state financial markets are in when they occur....

When do financial markets help in predicting economic activity? With incomplete markets, the link between financial and real economy is state-dependent and financial indicators may turn out to be useful particularly in forecasting tail macroeconomic events. We examine this conjecture by studying...

We show that US financial shocks have an impact on the distribution of UK income and consumption. Households with higher income and higher levels of consumption are affected more by this shock than households located towards the lower end of these distributions. An estimated multiple agent DSGE...

We show that US financial shocks have an impact on the distribution of UK income and consumption. Households with higher income and higher levels of consumption are affected more by this shock than households located towards the lower end of these distributions. An estimated multiple agent DSGE...

When do financial markets help in predicting economic activity? With incomplete markets, the link between financial and real economy is state-dependent and financial indicators may turn out to be useful particularly in forecasting "tail" macroeconomic events. We examine this conjecture by...

Financial markets are central to the transmission of uncertainty shocks. This paper documents a new aspect of the interaction between the two by showing that uncertainty shocks have radically different macroeconomic implications depending on the state financial markets are in when they occur....