Until now, thinking on open economy macroeconomics has been largely schizophrenic. When it comes to analyzing exchange rate dynamics, an empirically-minded economist abandons modern current account models which, while theoretically coherent, fail to address the awkward reality of sticky nominal...

Until now, thinking on open economy macroeconomics has been largely schizophrenic. When it comes to analyzing exchange rate dynamics, an empirically-minded economist abandons modern current account models which, while theoretically coherent, fail to address the awkward reality of sticky nominal...

The adaptive markets hypothesis posits that trading strategies evolve as traders adapt their behavior to changing circumstances. This paper studies the evolution of trading strategies for a hypothetical trader who chooses portfolios from foreign exchange (forex) technical rules in major and...

For about three decades until the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Covered Interest Parity (CIP) appeared to hold quite closely-even as a broad macroeconomic relationship applying to daily or weekly data. Not only have CIP deviations significantly increased since the GFC, but potential macro...

This paper presents the results of a survey of monetary authorities with respect to their beliefs about foreign exchange intervention. The survey provides evidence on new intervention issues that would be difficult to investigate otherwise, such as conditional response times, non-foreign...

Most intervention studies have been silent on the assumed structure of the economic system - implicitly imposing implausible assumptions - despite the fact that inference depends crucially on such issues. This paper identifies the cross-effects of intervention and the level of exchange rates...