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Bank of Canada communication and the predictability of Canadian monetary policy

Hayo, Bernd; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2009

We explain changes in the Canadian target rate using macroeconomic variables and Bank of Canada (BOC) communication … indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to predict 60 target rate decisions between 1998 … and 2006. We find that BOC communication is forward-looking, with a horizon that goes beyond the next meeting. Speeches …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271162

Does FOMC communication help predicting federal funds target rate changes?

Hayo, Bernd; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2009

(FOMC) communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to predict 75 target … rate decisions between 1998 and 2006. We find, first, that FOMC communication is forward-looking, with a horizon that goes … beyond the next meeting. Second, our communication indicators significantly explain target rate changes and improve …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271168

Establishing a hawkish reputation: Interest rate setting by newly appointed central bank governors

Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2012

In this paper, we explore the interest rate setting behavior of newly appointed central bank governors. We use the Kuttner and Posen (2010) sample, which covers 15 OECD countries, and estimate an augmented Taylor (1993) rule for the period 1974-2008. We find, first, that newly appointed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294374

Are public preferences reflected in monetary policy reaction functions?

Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2013

In this paper, we test whether public preferences for price stability (obtained from the Eurobarometer survey) are actually reflected in the interest rates set by eight central banks. We estimate augmented Taylor (1993) rules for the period 1976-1993 using the dynamic GMM estimator. We find,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294385

Inflation targeting, credibility and non-linear Taylor rules

Neuenkirch, Matthias; Tillmann, Peter - 2012

In this paper we systematically evaluate how central banks respond to inflation deviations from target. We present a stylized New Keynesian model in which agents' inflation expectations are sensitive to inflation deviations from target. To (re-)establish credibility, optimal monetary policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294449

Superstar Central Bankers

Neuenkirch, Matthias; Tillmann, Peter - 2013

press. A superstar central banker is one receiving the top grade. In a probit estimation we first relate the grades to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010327763

How monetary policy is made: Two Canadian tales

Siklos, Pierre L.; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2013

This paper examines the policy rate recommendations of the Bank of Canada's Governing Council (GC) and the C.D. Howe Institute's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) since 2003. We find, first, that differences in the median recommendations between the MPC and the GC are persistent but small (i.e., 25...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010333474

Federal reserve communications and newswire coverage

Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2013

by Board members. Nevertheless, media coverage of Fed president speeches is more likely if central bank communication is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010333490

Superstar central bankers

Neuenkirch, Matthias; Tillmann, Peter - 2013

press. A superstar central banker is one receiving the top grade. In a probit estimation we first relate the grades to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010333499

Party affiliation rather than former occupation: The background of central bank governors and its effect on monetary policy

Neuenkirch, Matthias; Neumeier, Florian - 2013

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between certain characteristics of incumbent central bank governors and their interest-rate-setting behavior. We focus on (i) occupational backgrounds, (ii) party affiliation, and (iii) experience in office and estimate augmented Taylor rules for 20...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010333501