Part I of this report discusses the short- and medium-term growth prospects for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The region is expected to grow at a subdued rate of 0.6 percent in 2019, rising to 2.6 percent in 2020 and 2.9 percent in 2021. The growth forecast for 2019 is...

Countries with greater commodity export intensity have more concentrated markets for imported goods. Within countries over time, import market concentration is associated with higher domestic prices, suggesting that markups due to greater concentration outweigh any potential cost efficiency....

Ownership of reforms by citizens is often presented as important for success. This paper explores media engagement and support for economic reforms in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries using text analysis techniques on publicly available sources. The results show that while reform efforts...

This paper explores the effect of oil price fluctuations on the stock returns of U.S. oil firms using an identification strategy through heteroskedasticity, exploiting the 2020 oil price crash. The results are twofold. First, a decline in oil prices significantly reduces oil firms' stock...

We empirically examine how import competition affects sentiment toward China in local communities in the United States using a news-based index for sentiment. Results are threefold. First, U.S. sentiment toward China peaked in 2007 before turning negative. Second, communities more exposed to...

We explore the effect of oil import price shocks on political outcomes using a worldwide dataset on elections of chief executives. Oil import price shocks cause a reduction in the odds of reelection of incumbents, an increase in media chatter about fuel prices, and an increase in non-violent...

This paper explores the effect of oil price fluctuations on the stock returns of U.S. oil firms using a strategy of identification through heteroskedasticity exploiting the 2020 oil crash. Results are twofold. First, we find that a decline in oil prices statistically significantly reduces stock...

This paper explores the effect of natural resource dependence on market concentration of imports. Using a new panel database for importing firms in developing and emerging market economies, the paper shows that higher natural resource dependence is associated with larger market concentration of...

This paper explores the spillover of protests across countries using data on nonviolent and spontaneous demonstrations for 200 countries from 2000 to 2020. Using an autoregressive spatial model, the analysis finds strong evidence of "contagious protests," with a catalyzing role of social media....