In this paper, we show the first order validity of the block bootstrap in the context of Kolmogorov type conditional distribution tests when there is dynamic misspecification and parameter estimation error. Our approach differs from the literature to date because we construct a bootstrap...

This paper introduces bootstrap specification tests for diffusion processes. In the one-dimensional case, the proposed test is closest to the nonparametric test introduced by Ait-Sahalia (1996), in the sense that both procedures determine whether the drift and variance components of a particular...

This paper introduces a multivariate density estimator for truncated and censored data with special emphasis on extreme values based on survival analysis. A local constant density estimator is considered. We extend this estimator by means of tail flattening transformation, dimension reducing...

The question of whether empirical models are able to forecast the equity premium more accurately than the simple historical mean is intensively debated in the financial literature. The low prediction power is disappointing, even when using nonparametric models that make use of typical predictor...

The main objective of this paper is to propose a feasible, model free estimator of the predictive density of integrated volatility. In this sense, we extend recent papers by Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys (2003), and by Andersen, Bollerslev and Meddahi (2004, 2005), who address the...

A class of local linear kernel density estimators based on weighted least squares kernel estimation is considered within the framework of Aalen's multiplicative intensity model. This model includes the filtered data model that, in turn, allows for truncation and/or censoring in addition to...

The main objective of this paper is to propose a feasible, model free estimator of the predictive density of integrated volatility. In this sense, we extend recent papers by Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys (2003), and by Andersen, Bollerslev and Meddahi (2004, 2005), who address the...

In this paper, we apply machine learning to forecast the conditional variance of long-term stock returns measured in excess of different benchmarks, considering the short- and long-term interest rate, the earnings-by-price ratio, and the inflation rate. In particular, we apply in a two-step...

We propose new procedures for estimating the univariate quantities of interest in both additive and multiplicative nonparametric marker dependent hazard models. We work with a full counting process framework that allows for left truncation and right censoring. Our procedures are based on kernels...