Macroeconomic theories take polar views on the importance of choice versus chance. At the micro level, it seems realistic to assume that both dimensions play a role for individual employment outcomes, although it might be difficult to separate these two effects. Nevertheless the choice and...

We estimate the quantitative importance of labour market institutions for equilibrium unemployment in OECD. The empirical equation for unemployment is based on the solution of a dynamic macroeconomic model where wages and prices are jointly determined with unemployment. Compared to existing...

Comparative-statics results for financial options are often assumed to hold for real options. But the effects of higher volatility need not be increased value and postponed investment. This depends on signs of correlations and what parameters are held constant. For real options, the...

Failures are not rare in economic forecasting, probably due to the high incidence of shocks and regime shifts in the economy. Thus, there is a premium on adaptation in the forecast process, in order to avoid sequences of forecast failure. This paper evaluates a sequence of inflation forecasts in...

The dynamic properties of the The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NPC) is analysed within the framework of a small system of linear di.erence equations.We evaluate the empirical results of existing studies which uses ‘Euroland’ and US data. The debate has been centered around the...

We investigate the economic significance of trading off empirical validity of models against other desirable model properties, and the potential loss from ’overestimating’ model uncertainty and basing monetary policy on a relatively robust model, or on a suite of models. We find that...

We derive aggregate supply (AS) relationships for an intermediate-run macro model. The wage-price spiral provides the conceptual framework for a synthesis of different contesting theoretical and empirical perspectives on the AS curve: the Phillips curve model (PCM) and the wage-price equilibrium...

In this paper the effects on aggregate consumption of changes in the age distribution of the population are analysed empirically. Economic theories predict that age influences individuals’ saving and consumption behaviour. Despite this, age structure effects are rarely controlled for in...

Several features of the U.S. natural rate of unemployment are reconsidered through specification and testing of econometric models. Traditionally, the choice has been between a wage Phillips curve model, PCM, or an equilibrium correction wage curve model, WECM. The models proposed in this paper...

We present a framework for interpretation of the empirical results of New Keynesian models of inflation dynamics. Both the rational expectations solution of the structural New Keynesian Phillips curve, NKPC, and the reduced form VAR analysis of the multivariate time series properties give...