We analyze the evolution and drivers of inflation during the pandemic and the likely trajectory of inflation in the near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR) model. We report three main results. First, the decline...

Global inflation has risen sharply from its lows in mid-2020, on rebounding global demand, supply bottlenecks, and soaring food and energy prices, especially since the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine. Markets expect inflation to peak in mid-2022 and then decline, but to remain elevated...

We study the extent of global inflation synchronization using a dynamic factor model in a large set of countries over a half century. Our methodology allows us to account for differences across groups of countries (advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies) and to analyze...

The paper studies the extent of global inflation synchronization using a dynamic factor model in a large set of countries over a half century. The authors' methodology allows them to account for differences across groups of countries (advanced economies and emerging market and developing...

Economic developments in the United States and China, the world's two largest economies, can have effects far beyond their shores. A slowdown in these economies would result in considerably lower global growth transmitted through trade, financial, and commodity market channels. Changing U.S....