Experts can rely on statistical model forecasts when creating their own forecasts.Usually it is not known what experts actually do. In this paper we focus on threequestions, which we try to answer given the availability of expert forecasts andmodel forecasts. First, is the expert forecast...

This paper studies the economic development process, measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), for a large panel of countries. We propose a methodology that identifies groups of countries (convergence clubs) that show similar GDP structures, while allowing for changes in club memberships over...

We put forward a statistical model for interpurchase times that takes into account all the current and past information available for all purchases as time continues to run along the calendar timescale. It delivers forecasts for the number of purchases in the next period and for the timing of...

We propose a new model to describe consideration, consisting of a multivariate probit model component for consideration and a multinomial probit model component for choice, given consideration. The approach allows one to analyze stated consideration set data, revealed consideration set (choice)...

For promotional planning and market segmentation it is important to understand the short-run and long-run effects of the marketing mix on category and brand sales. In this paper we put forward a sales response model to explain the differences in short-run and long-run effects of promotions on...

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced form Phillips curve forecasts, i.e., inflation forecasts using activity and expectations variables. We propose a Phillips curve-type model that results from averaging across different regression specifications selected from a set of...

We propose a novel Bayesian test under a (noninformative) Jeffreys’ prior speciï¬ca- tion. We check whether the ï¬xed scalar value of the so-called Bayesian Score Statistic (BSS) under the null hypothesis is a plausible realization from its known and standard- ized distribution...

Two important empirical features of monthly US unemployment are that shocks to the series seem rather persistent and that unemployment seems to rise faster in recessions than that it falls during expansions. To jointly capture these features of long memory and nonlinearity, respectively, we put...

In this paper we consider the situation where one wants to study the preferences of individuals over a discrete choice set through a survey. In the classical setup respondents are asked to select their most preferred option out of a (selected) set of alternatives. It is well known that, in...

Empirical analysis of individual response behavior is sometimes limited due to the lack of explanatory variables at the individual level. In this paper we put forward a new approach to estimate the effects of covariates on individual response, where the covariates are unknown at the individual...