Stylized facts show that average growth rates of US per capita consumption and income differ in recession and expansion periods. Since a linear combination of such series does not have to be a constant mean process, standard cointegration analysis between the variables to examine the permanent...

Stylized facts show that the average growth rates of US per capitaconsumption and income differ in recession and expansion periods.Since a linear combination of such series does not have to be a constant meanprocess, standard cointegration analysis between the variables, toexamine the permanent...

Stylized facts show that the average growth rates of US per capitaconsumption and income differ in recession and expansion periods.Since a linear combination of such series does not have to be a constant meanprocess, standard cointegration analysis between the variables, toexamine the permanent...

Forecasts of key macroeconomic variables may lead to policy changes of governments, central banks and other economic agents. Policy changes in turn lead to structural changes in macroeconomic time series models. To describe this phenomenon we introduce a logistic smooth transition autoregressive...

Charitable organizations often consider direct mailings to raise donations. Obviously, it is important for a charity to make a profitable selection from available mailing lists, which can be its own list or a list obtained elsewhere. For this purpose, a charitable organization usually has to...

Using the standard linear model as a base, a unified theory of Bayesian Analyses of Cointegration Models is constructed. This is achieved by defining (natural conjugate) priors in the linear model and using the implied priors for the cointegration model. Using these priors, posterior results for...