Showing 1 - 10 of 58
possible non-rationality in expectations, a lagged inflation term enters the New Keynesian Phillips curve for inflation … of imposing any specific form of expectations formation, di-rect measures, ie Consensus Economics survey data are used to … proxy economic agents’ inflation expecta-tions. According to the results, the New Classical Phillips curve has satisfactory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005419685
assumption that all imports are intermediate goods. Instead of imposing rational expectations a priori, Consensus Economics … survey data and OECD inflation forecasts are used to proxy inflation expectations. The results suggest that, compared with a … specification. Moreover, in the open economy context, even if we allow for persistence in expectations, the hybrid specification of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009278817
uncertainty is closely related to the output growth uncertainty. In forming expectations, individual forecasters seem to behave …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010699288
This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters’ data. Both inflation and real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level are considered. Our analysis indicates that individual inflation uncertainty is closely related to output growth uncertainty. Individual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010868569
Modern economic theory underlines the importance of expectations. However, it is less obvious how expectations are … formed and how they should be measured. This paper analyses the role of inflation and output growth expectations in the US …, the euro area and Japan. On the one hand, the question is how expectations affect both actual inflation and output; and on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010840425
. Revisions of expectations generally lead to larger forecast errors. Subjective uncertainty measures, which are available at the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010818991
This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We … not cause systematic distortions to aggregated survey information. However, micro level analysis of expectations would …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011095060
This paper evaluates the quality of survey forecasts, their accuracy and unbiasedness, and their overall consistency. The paper also tries to find out whether the relationships between economic variables are the same in survey data and in the actual data. In other words we analyze whether the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011140924
non-rationality in expectations, a lagged inflation term enters the New Keynesian Phillips curve for European inflation … imposing rational expectations, direct measures, ie OECD forecasts, are used to proxy economic agents’ inflation expectations …. Real marginal costs are measured in three different ways. The results suggest that with directly measured expectations the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008774211
expectations. In the open economy context, we make the assumption that all imports are intermediate goods. Possible persistence in … expectations is taken into account by using direct proxies i.e. Consensus Economics survey data for inflation expectations. The … analysis must be based on structural models, which capture expectations dynamics and the open economy aspects of the inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010551990