This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation … expectations affect both inflation and output,and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect developments in these … variables. The analyses make use of a simple VAR model of inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap that allows for …

This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian … hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus … results indicate that in both economic areas the inflation dynamics have steadily become more forward-looking over time. We …

This paper examines recent changes in the cyclicality of euro area inflation. We estimate time-varying parameters for … become steeper since 2012. Thus, the current low level of inflation and persistently negative output gap increase the risk … that euro area inflation will stay below the monetary policy target for an extended period. …