This paper examines inflation dynamics in Europe. Econometric specification tests with pooled European data are used to compare the empirical performance of the New Classical, New Keynesian and Hybrid specifications of the Phillips curve. Instead of imposing any specific form of expectations...

Using real time data from the OECD and fiscal policy reaction functions, this study explores euro area fiscal policies since the late 1990s. Both discretionary plans for the budget year and policy changes during budget implementation stages are investigated. The main focus is on the fiscal...

This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters’ data. We consider both inflation and real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level and explore forecast uncertainty using two alternative measures, i.e. conventional standard deviation of individual point forecasts...

This paper studies forecasts errors at the micro level using two alternative survey data sets. The main focus is on inflation and real GDP growth forecasts in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. For comparison, inflation forecasts in the US Survey of Professional Forecasters are also...

This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus Economics survey and so do not assume rational...

This study explores discretionary fiscal policies in the euro area during the time of monetary union (EMU). Ex ante budget plans and policy changes during budget implementation are investigated using real time data from the OECD Economic Outlook publications. The particular focus of the study is...

This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We analyse possible impacts of changing panel composition on short and long term point forecasts and forecast uncertainties using approach, which is based on a set of sub-panels...

This paper examines recent changes in the cyclicality of euro area inflation. We estimate time-varying parameters for the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve using three alternative proxies for the output gap. Our analysis, which is based on the state-space method with Kalman filtering...

This paper examines empirical performance of three different Phillips curve specifications in the euro area. Instead of imposing rational expectations, direct measures, ie OECD forecasts, are used to proxy economic agents’ inflation expectations. Real marginal costs are measured in three...

The present study examines empirically the inflation dynamics of the euro area. The focus of the analysis is on the role of expectations in the inflation process. In six articles we relax rationality assumption and proxy expectations directly using OECD forecasts or Consensus Economics survey...