This paper summarises the findings of the Eurosystem’s Expert Group on Inflation Expectations (EGIE), which was one of … (i) reviewing the nature and behaviour of inflation expectations, with a focus on the degree of anchoring, and (ii …) exploring the role that measures of expectations can play in forecasting inflation. While it is households’ and firms’ inflation …

Using the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, this paper investigates how consumers revise medium-term inflation … medium-term inflation views in response to changes in short-term inflation expectations and, to a lesser degree, to changes … in perceptions of current inflation. We find that the strong adverse Covid-19 pandemic shock contributed to an increase …

Using the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, this paper investigates revisions of medium-term inflation expectations. We … provide robust evidence that consumers adjust medium-term inflation views in response to changes in short-term inflation … expectations and, to a lesser degree, to changes in inflation perceptions. We find that the strong adverse Covid-19 shock …

Using the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, this paper investigates how consumers revise medium-term inflation … medium-term inflation views in response to changes in short-term inflation expectations and, to a lesser degree, to changes … in perceptions of current inflation. We find that the strong adverse Covid-19 pandemic shock contributed to an increase …

imposing rational expectations, direct measures, ie OECD forecasts, are used to proxy economic agents' inflation expectations … Classical and Hybrid Phillips curves. We interpret our results as indicating that the European inflation process is not purely … forwardlooking, so that inflation cannot instantaneously adjust to new information. Consequently, even allowing for possible non …

This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation … expectations affect both inflation and output, and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect developments in these … variables. The analyses make use of a simple VAR model of inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap that allows for …

economic agents' inflation expectations. Real marginal costs are proxied by three different measures. The results suggest that … OECD inflation forecasts perform relatively well as a proxy for inflation expectations in the euro area, since under this … approach the European inflation process can be modeled using the forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve. However …

This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters' data. We consider both inflation and … are based on subjective probability distributions of survey respondents. Our analysis indicates that individual inflation … inflation uncertainty has a negative impact on economic activity by decreasing output growth and increasing inflation and …

This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian … hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus … results indicate that in both economic areas the inflation dynamics have steadily become more forward-looking over time. We …