The detection of explosive behavior in house prices and the implementation of early warning diagnosis tests are of great importance for policy-making. This paper applies the GSADF test developed by Phillips et al. (2012) and Phillips et al. (2013), a novel procedure for testing, detection and...

Nonlinear models of deviations from PPP have recently provided an important, theoretically well motivated, contribution to the PPP puzzle. In recent work the equilibrium level has been modelled either as constant or as time varying with very similar statistical fits and very different economic...

Nonlinear models of deviations from PPP have recently provided an important, theoretically well motivated, contribution to the PPP puzzle. Most of these studies use temporally aggregated data to empirically estimate the nonlinear models. As noted by Taylor (2001), if the true DGP is nonlinear,...

Nonlinear models of deviations from PPP have recently provided an important, theoretically well motivated, contribution to the PPP puzzle. In recent work the equilibrium level has been modelled either as constant or as time varying with very similar statistical fits and very different economic...

Economic growth models under uncertainty and rational agents with CRRA utility have been shown to provide quite fragile explanations of consumers.choice as equlib- rium comsumption paths (expected utility) are drastically dependant on distributional assumptions. We show that assuming a SNP...

This paper examines the dynamics of the linkages between Shang- hai and Hong Kong stock indices. While the volatility linkage is anal- ysed by a multivariate GARCH framework, the linkage of returns is examined using a copula approach. Eight different copula functions are applied in this study...

Nonlinear models of deviations from PPP have recently provided an important, theoretically well motivated, contribution to the PPP puzzle. Most of these studies use temporally aggregated data to empirically estimate the nonlinear models. As noted by Taylor (2001), if the true DGP is nonlinear,...

This paper deals with the nonlinear modeling and forecasting of the dollar-sterling real exchange rate using a long span of data. Our contribution is threefold. First, we provide significant evidence of smooth transition dynamics in the series by employing a battery of recently developed...

This paper adopts a nonlinear framework to model the deviations of the real exchange rate from its fundamental value implied by International Real Business Cycle models with complete asset markets. By focusing on the post Bretton Woods era, we find that in several cases there is a long run...

After a prolonged period characterized by rapid real appreciation in house prices, there is now broad recognition of the severe correction in housing markets that followed as one of the causes of the 2008-09 global recession. We investigate the time series characteristics of three relevant price...