Showing 1 - 10 of 123
A common approach for estimating the macroeconomic effects of oil supply news employs SVAR-IV models identified using changes in oil futures prices around OPEC quota announcements as an instrument. However, we show that the reduced-form oil price innovations, structural shocks, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015145023
We use vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatility to investigate how the dynamic effects of oil supply shocks on the U.S. economy have changed over time. We find a substantial decline in the short-run price elasticity of oil demand since the mid-eighties. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009424731
A common approach for estimating the macroeconomic effects of oil supply news employs SVAR-IV models identified using changes in oil futures prices around OPEC quota announcements as an instrument. However, we show that the reduced-form oil price innovations, structural shocks, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015175217
This paper uses a number of simple VAR models for the industrialised world, the United States and the euro area respectively to analyse the underlying shocks that may have caused the recent slowdown. The results of two identification strategies are compared. One is based on traditional zero...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014061900
In recent years, New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NK DSGE) models have become increasingly popular in the academic literature and in policy analysis. However, the success of these models in reproducing the dynamic behavior of an economy following structural shocks is still...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012779872
We use vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatility to investigate how the dynamic effects of oil supply shocks on the U.S. economy have changed over time. We find a substantial decline in the short-run price elasticity of oil demand since the mid-eighties. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010319672
We compare the economic consequences of several types of oil shocks across a set of industrialized countries that are structurally very diverse with respect to the role of oil and other forms of energy in their economy. We find considerably different effects across countries, which crucially...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274760
There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline in the volatility of oil production since the early 1990s. We explore reasons for this evolution. We show that a likely explanation of this empirical fact is that both the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010279858
We compare the macroeconomic consequences of several types of oil shocks across a set of industrialized countries that are structurally very diverse with respect to the role of oil and other forms of energy in the economy. The results crucially depend on the underlying source of the oil price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010868797
There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline in the volatility of oil production since the early 1990s. We explore reasons for this evolution. We show that a likely explanation of this empirical fact is that both the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009368874