We examine the predictability of government bond returns using a deep sample spanning 70 years of international data across the major bond markets. Using an economic, trading-based testing framework we find strong economic and statistical evidence of bond return predictability with a Sharpe...

We examine government bond factor premiums in a deep global sample from 1800 to 2020 spanning the major markets and maturities. Bond factors (Value, Momentum, Low-risk) offer attractive premiums that do not decay across samples, are persistent over time, and consistent across various market and...