The example of the "absent-minded driver" was introduced by Piccione & Rubinstein [1995] in the context of games and decision problems with imperfect recall. They claim that a "paradox" or "inconsistency" arises when the decision reached at the "planning stage" is compared with that at the...

This paper undertakes a careful examination of the concept of conditional probability and its use. The ideas are then applied to resolve a conceptual puzzle related to Savage's "Sure-Thing Principle."