This paper develops a long-run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the "Dutch disease" and the "resource curse", which primarily focuses on...

This paper presents two generalisations of the existing cointegration analysis literature. Firstly, the problem of efficient estimation of vector error correction models containing I(1) exogenous variables is considered and the asymptotic distributions of the log-likelihood ratio statistics for...

This paper is concerned with testing the time series implications of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) due to Sharpe (1964) and Lintner (1965), when the number of securities, <em>N</em>, is large relative to the time dimension, <em>T</em>, of the return series. Two new tests of CAPM are proposed that exploit...

This paper considers testing the hypothesis that errors in a panel data model are weakly cross sectionally dependent, using the exponent of cross-sectional dependence <img src="http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/faculty/pesaran/wp12/image3.png" width="11" height="13" />, introduced recently in Bailey, Kapetanios and Pesaran (2012). It is shown that the implicit null of the <em>CD</em> test depends on the...

This paper proposes a theoretical framework to analyze the impacts of credit and technology shocks on business cycle dynamics, where firms rely on banks and households for capital financing. Firms are identical ex ante but differ ex post due to different realizations of firm specific technology...

An important issue in the analysis of cross-sectional dependence which has received renewed interest in the past few years is the need for a better understanding of the extent and nature of such cross dependencies. In this paper we focus on measures of cross-sectional dependence and how such...

The international business cycle is very important for Latin America's economic performance as the recent global crisis vividly illustrated. This paper investigates how changes in trade linkages between China, Latin America, and the rest of the world have altered the transmission mechanism of...

In econometric analysis, non-nested models arise naturally when rival economic theories are used to explain the same phenomenon, such as unemployment, inflation or output growth. The authors examine the problem of hypothesis testing when the models under consideration are ‘non-nested’ or...

This paper provides a general framework for aggregating linear dynamic models by deriving the aggregate model as an optimal prediction of the aggregate variable of interest with respect to an aggregate information set generated by current and past values of available aggregate observations. The...

This survey uses a number of recent developments in the analysis of cointegrating Vector Autoregressions (VAR) to examine the links to the older structural modelling traditions using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Simultaneous Equations Models (SEM). In particular, it emphasises the...