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This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...
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making and risk management. Over the past three decades there has been a trend towards increased asset return correlations … models proposed in the literature can be used to formally characterize and quantify market risk. In particular, we ask how … adequate these models are for modelling market risk at times of financial crisis. In doing so we consider a multivariate t …
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making and risk management. Over the past three decades there has been a trend towards increased asset return correlations … models proposed in the literature can be used to formally characterize and quantify market risk. In particular, we ask how … adequate these models are for modelling market risk at times of financial crisis. In doing so we consider a multivariate t …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094817
methods provide better overall forecasting performance and offer more attractive risk profiles compared to individual, pooled …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292495
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This paper considers a simple model of credit risk and derives the limit distribution of losses under different … results obtained indicate that if firm-specific risk exposures (including their default thresholds) are heterogeneous but come … from a common parameter distribution, for sufficiently large portfolios there is no scope for further risk reduction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003120648
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