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Revisiting the great ratios hypothesis
Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron - 2022
The idea that certain economic variables are roughly constant in the long-run is an old one. Kaldor described them as stylized facts, whereas Klein and Kosobud labelled them great ratios. While such ratios are widely adopted in theoretical models in economics as conditions for balanced growth,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013041372
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Revisiting the great ratios hypothesis
Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron - 2022
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013263388
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Life-Cycle Consumption Under Social Interactions
Binder, Michael; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2000
In this paper we examine how social interactions affect consumption decisions at various levels of aggregation in a life-cycle economy made up of peer groups. For this purpose, we consider two analytically solvable life-cycle models, one under certainty equivalent behavior and one under...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014159030
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Forecast uncertainties in macroeconomic modeling : an application to the UK economy
Garratt, Anthony; Lee, Kevin C.; Pesaran, M. Hashem; … - In: Journal of the American Statistical Association : JASA 98 (2003) 464, pp. 829-838
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001971275
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Forecast uncertainties in macroeconometric modelling : an application to the UK economy
Garratt, Anthony; Lee, Kevin C.; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2000
This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001539419
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Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling : An Application to the UK Economy
Garratt, Anthony; Lee, Kevin; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Shin, … - 2021
This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321125
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Conditional volatility and correlations of weekly returns and the VaR analysis of 2008 stock market crash
Pesaran, Bahram; Pesaran, M. Hashem - In: Economic modelling 27 (2010) 6, pp. 1398-1416
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008825760
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Conditional volatility and correlations of weekly returns and the VaR analysis of 2008 stock market crash
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2010
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003981032
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Conditional volatility and correlations of weekly returns and the VaR analysis of 2008 stock market crash
Pesaran, Bahram; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2010
making and risk management. Over the past three decades there has been a trend towards increased asset return correlations … models proposed in the literature can be used to formally characterize and quantify market risk. In particular, we ask how … adequate these models are for modelling market risk at times of financial crisis. In doing so we consider a multivariate t …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003965868
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Uncertainty and economic activity : a global perspective
Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, … - 2014
The 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on macroeconomic dynamics. This paper studies the interrelation between financial markets volatility and economic activity assuming that both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011286232