Showing 1 - 10 of 481
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001558798
This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781626
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003850869
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003711763
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003816240
This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or … estimation windows leads to a lower bias and to a lower root mean square forecast error for all but the smallest of breaks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012714199
This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or … estimation windows leads to a lower bias and to a lower root mean square forecast error for all but the smallest of breaks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756639
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000560434
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000147753
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003328171