This paper uses vector error correction models of Switzerland for forecasting output, inflation and the short-term interest rate. It considers three different ways of dealing with forecast uncertainties. First, it investigates the effect on forecasting performance of averaging over forecasts...

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of past breaks (if...

We investigate the effect of forecast uncertainty in a cointegrating vector error correction model for Switzerland. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of averaging over forecasts from different models....

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of past breaks (if...

We investigate the effect of forecast uncertainty in a cointegrating vector error correction model for Switzerland. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of averaging over forecasts from different models....

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of past breaks (if...

New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC) have been extensively used in the analysis of monetary policy, but yet there are a number of issues of concern about how they are estimated and then related to the underlying macroeconomic theory. The first is whether such equations are identified. To check...

In recent years there has been increasing concern about the identification of parameters in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Given the structure of DSGE models it may be di¢ cult to deter- mine whether a parameter is identi?ed. For the researcher using Bayesian methods, a...

In recent years there has been increasing concern about the identification of parameters in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Given the structure of DSGE models it may be difficult to determine whether a parameter is identified. For the researcher using Bayesian methods, a...

In recent years there has been increasing concern about the identification of parameters in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Given the structure of DSGE models it may be difficult to determine whether a parameter is identified. For the researcher using Bayesian methods, a...