intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macroeconometric model, are … presented. We discuss in detail the probability that inflation will fall within the Bank of England's target range and that … insights on the interrelatedness of output growth and inflation outcomes at different horizons. …

the shock. In particular, we find that adverse shocks to Iranian oil output are neutralized in terms of their effects on … contrast, a negative shock to oil supply in Saudi Arabia leads to an immediate and permanent increase in oil prices, given that … supply shock has significant adverse effects for the global economy with real GDP falling in both advanced and emerging …

due to a fiscal policy shock, as compared to when the rise in output is due to a positive technology shock. The cross ….75 when the rise in output follows from a favorable output shock …

due to a fiscal policy shock, as compared to when the rise in output is due to a positive technology shock. The cross ….75 when the rise in output follows from a favorable output shock …

due to a fiscal policy shock, as compared to when the rise in output is due to a positive technology shock. The cross … the rise in output follows from a favorable output shock …

factors from trade-related spillovers, and identify the Covid-19 shock using GDP growth forecast revisions of the IMF in 2020Q …