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China's emergence in the world economy and business cycles in Latin America
Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, … - 2012
world have altered the transmission mechanism of international business cycles to Latin America. Evidence based on a Global … world shows that the long-term impact of a China GDP shock on the typical Latin American economy has increased by three … associated with a deceleration in China's economic growth in the future for both Latin America and the rest of the world economy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009627525
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China's emergence in the world economy and business cycles in Latin America
Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, … - 2011
world have altered the transmission mechanism of international business cycles to Latin America. Evidence based on a Global … world shows that the long-term impact of a China GDP shock on the typical Latin American economy has increased by three … associated with a deceleration in China's economic growth in the future for both Latin America and the rest of the world economy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009311486
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China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011
world have altered the transmission mechanism of international business cycles to Latin America. Evidence based on a Global … world shows that the long-term impact of a China GDP shock on the typical Latin American economy has increased by three … associated with a deceleration in China's economic growth in the future for both Latin America and the rest of the world economy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121741
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Macroeconomic dynamics and credit risk : a global perspective
Schuermann, Til; Treutler, Björn-Jakob; Weiner, Scott M.; … - 2003
We develop a framework for modeling conditional loss distributions through the introduction of risk factor dynamics. Asset value changes of a credit portfolio are linked to a dynamic global macroeconometric model, allowing macro effects to be isolated from idiosyncratic shocks. Default...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011508097
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Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy : a counterfactual analysis
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2015
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oil-supply shocks. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil market and integrate this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010528313
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Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area : A Global VAR Analysis
Dees, Stephane - 2006
This paper presents a global model linking individual country vector error-correcting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific variables as an approximate solution to a global common factor model. This global VAR is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783809
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A counterfactual economic analysis of Covid-19 using a threshold augmented multi-country model
Chudik, Alexander; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem; … - 2020
observations. Our results show that the Covid-19 pandemic will lead to a significant fall in world output that is most likely long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012293790
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Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk : A Global Perspective
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Schuermann, Til; Treutler, Björn-Jakob - 2021
We develop a framework for modeling conditional loss distributions through the introduction of risk factor dynamics. Asset value changes of a credit portfolio are linked to a dynamic global macroeconometric model, allowing macro effects to be isolated from idiosyncratic shocks. Default...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013319848
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China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America
Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, … - 2011
This paper investigates how changes in trade linkages between China, Latin America, and the rest of the world have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328125
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Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around?
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2016
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011502542