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Forecast uncertainties in macroeconometric modelling : an application to the UK economy
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2000
This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781626
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Forecasting random walks under drift instability
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas - 2009
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003816240
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Forecasting random walks under drift instability
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003850869
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Conditional volatility and correlations of weekly returns and the VaR analysis of 2008 stock market crash
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2010
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003981032
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Conditional volatility and correlations of weekly returns and the VaR analysis of 2008 stock market crash
Pesaran, Bahram; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2010
return correlations using weekly returns on futures markets and investigate the extent to which multivariate volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003965868
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Conditional volatility and correlations of weekly returns and the VaR analysis of 2008 stock market crash
Pesaran, Bahram; Pesaran, M. Hashem - In: Economic modelling 27 (2010) 6, pp. 1398-1416
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008825760
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Forecasting random walks under drift instability
Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor); Pick, Andreas (contributor) - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003711763
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Modelling volatilities and conditional correlations in futures markets with a multivariate t distribution
Pesaran, Bahram (contributor);  … - 2007
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003491106
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Modelling volatilities and conditional correlations in futures markets with a multivariate t distribution
Pesaran, Bahram (contributor);  … - 2007
than by GARCH type volatility estimates. The t-DCC estimation procedure is applied to a portfolio of daily returns on …-DCC specification. The t-DCC model also passes a number of VaR diagnostic tests over an evaluation sample. The estimation results … suggest a general trend towards a lower level of return volatility, accompanied by a rising trend in conditional cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003586562
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Modelling volatilities and conditional correlations in futures markets with a multivariate t distribution
Pesaran, Bahram (contributor);  … - 2007
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003499671