Oberhofer, Harald; Pfaffermayr, Michael - 2017
different counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that UK's exports of goods to the EU are likely to … decline within a range between 7.2 percent and 45.7 percent (EU's exports to UK by 5.9 percent to 38.2 percent) six years … under the hard Brexit scenario. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are negligible in magnitude and statistically not …