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Causal relationships in econometrics are typically based on the concept of predictability and are established in terms of tests for Granger causality. These causal relationships are susceptible to change, especially during times of financial turbulence, making the real-time detection of...
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. The tests are consistent and divergence rates are faster when the predictor is stationary. Asymptotic theory and …
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-real-time forecasting exercises to investigate whether the predictive capability of the yield curve extends to forecasting economic activity …
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