This paper re-examines changes in the causal link between money and income in the United States over the past half-century (1959 - 2014). Three methods for the data-driven discovery of change points in causal relationships are proposed, all of which can be implemented without prior detrending of...

Causal relationships in econometrics are typically based on the concept of predictability and are established in terms of tests for Granger causality. These causal relationships are susceptible to change, especially during times of financial turbulence, making the real-time detection of...

This paper re-examines changes in the causal link between money and income in the United States for over the past half century (1959-2014). Three methods for the data-driven discovery of change points in causal relationships are proposed, all of which can be implemented without prior detrending...

This paper studies the distribution of the classical t-ratio with data generatedfrom distributions with no nite moments and shows how classical testing is affectedby bimodality. A key condition in generating bimodality is independenceof the observations in the underlying data generating process...

A new recursive regression methodology is introduced to analyze the bubble characteristics of various financial time series during the subprime crisis. The methods modify a technique proposed in Phillips, Wu and Yu (2010) and provide a technology for identifying bubble behavior and consistent...

A recursive regression methodology is used to analyze the bubble characteristics of various financial time series during the subprime crisis. The methods provide a technology for identifying bubble behavior and consistent dating of their origination and collapse. Seven relevant financial series...

A new methodology is proposed to estimate theortical prices of financial contingent-claims whose values are dependent on some other underlying financial assets. In the literature the preferred choice of estimator is usually maximum likelihood (ML). ML has strong asymptotic justification but is...

A recursive regression methodology is used to analyze the bubble characteristics of various financial time series during the subprime crisis. The methods provide a technology for identifying bubble behavior and consistent dating of their origination and collapse. Seven relevant financial series...

A model of financial asset price determination is proposed that incorporates flat trading features into an efficient price process. The model involves the superposition of a Brownian semimartingale process for the effcient price and a Bernoulli process that determines the extent of price...

A new recursive regression methodology is introduced to analyze the bubble characteristics of various financial time series during the subprime crisis. The methods modify a technique proposed in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011) and provide a technology for identifying bubble behavior with consistent...