This paper reexamines the permanent income hypothesis (PIH) in the frequency domain. Using a simple model, we demonstrate that the PIH implies the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of zero frequency income is unity. The PIH also implies that the MPC out of transitory (or high frequency)...

The Kalman filter is sued to derive updating equations for the Bayesian data density in discrete time linear regression models with stochastic regressors. The implied "Bayes model" has time varying parameters and conditionally heterogeneous error variances. A sigma-finite "Bayes model" measure...

Some challenges for econometric research on trending time are discussed in relation to some perceived needs of macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy making.

Time series models are often fitted to the data without preliminary checks for stability of the mean and variance, conditions that may not hold in much economic and financial data, particularly over long periods. Ignoring such shifts may result in fitting models with spurious dynamics that lead...

A prominent use of local to unity limit theory in applied work is the construction of confidence intervals for autogressive roots through inversion of the ADF t statistic associated with a unit root test, as suggested in Stock (1991). Such confidence intervals are valid when the true model has...

A unifying framework for inference is developed in predictive regressions where the predictor has unknown integration properties and may be stationary or nonstationary. Two easily implemented nonparametric F-tests are proposed. The test statistics are related to those of Kasparis and Phillips...

A new family of kernels is suggested for use in heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) and long run variance (LRV) estimation and robust regression testing. The kernels are constructed by taking powers of the Bartlett kernel and are intended to be used with no truncation (or...

It is well known that unit root limit distributions are sensitive to initial conditions in the distant past. If the distant past initialization is extended to the infinite past, the initial condition dominates the limit theory producing a faster rate of convergence, a limiting Cauchy...

In time series regression with nonparametrically autocorrelated errors, it is now standard empirical practice to construct confidence intervals for regression coefficients on the basis of nonparametrically studentized t-statistics. The standard error used in the studentization is typically...