We study terrorist choice from the perspective of economics and psychology. Using RANDMIPT data about the injuries and fatalities inflicted by different terrorist attack methods, we compute sets of preference orderings over the attack methods using prospect theory. This incorporates reference...

Along with such factors as declining support, the dismantling of the leadership group and transition into legitimate political engagement there is another factor that is relevant to the decline and fall of terrorist groups. This is the group’s risk aversion. This aspect of the terrorist...

Von Neumann Morgenstern (NM) expected utility forms a part of the foundations of theoretical defence economics and the economic analysis of terrorism. NM expected utility maximisation can be used to derive important results with implications for government defence policies. However, the amount...

What we know about human decision-making under risk and uncertainty has expanded rapidly over the past forty years. Much of this work has been undertaken by psychologists and economists working together in the new field of behavioural economics. We work through the steps that led to the...

When a terrorist group's aspirations far exceed the outcomes that can be expected to result from any of the available attack methods, an outcome below the terrorist group's aspiration level is inevitable. A primary prediction of SP/A theory when applied to the study of terrorist behaviour is...

In the United States, lone wolf terrorism is characterised by a significant gender gap. Most lone wolf terrorists are male. This paper explores this gender gap and compares it to the gender gap in illegitimate and, especially, violent offending. The standard theoretical response from economics...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the attack method choices of terrorists. In particular, this paper addresses the question of whether the attack method choices of terrorists are guided by a preferred risk habitat. Terroristic organisations might select attack methods as part of an...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the insights that might be generated into the nature of ‘lone wolf terrorism’ through the application of economic analysis. Orthodox approaches, particularly (standard) expected utility analysis and game theoretical analysis, are discussed. These...

The Global Terrorism Database contains many active and inactive terrorist groups. Whether one considers their size to be measured in terms of grassroots support or number of members (individual terrorists), the defining characteristic of the terrorist groups contained in the GTD is smallness....

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relevance of ‘switching costs’ to the problem of terrorism and grassroots support of terrorism. Grassroots supporters that choose between the terrorist organisation and the government may face considerable costs in switching their support after...