Davis, Scott; Mack, Adrienne; Phoa, Wesley; … - Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR), … - 2014
A number of papers have shown that rapid growth in private sector credit is a strong predictor of a banking crisis. This paper will ask if credit growth is itself the cause of a crisis, or is it the combination of credit growth and external deficits? This paper estimates a probabilistic model to...