Conventional tests of present-value models over-reject the null of no predictability. In order to better account for the intrinsic probability of detecting predictive relations by chance alone, we develop a new nonparametric Monte Carlo testing method, which does not rely on distributional...

We explore the pricing of variance risk by decomposing stocks' total variance into systematicand idiosyncratic return variances. While systematic variance risk exhibits a negative priceof risk, common shocks to the variances of idiosyncratic returns carry a large positive riskpremium. This...

Using a unique dataset containing separate information on the base andbonus pay of over a million workers, we provide novel evidence on the determinantsand earnings effects of performance pay. Several observables—in particularage, education, tenure, and job complexity—have a large impact on...