We analyse the economics and epidemiology of different scenarios for a phased restart of the UK economy. Our economic model is designed to address the unique features of the COVID-19 pandemic.Social distancing measures affect both supply and demand, and input-output constraints play a key role...

We propose a simple model where the innovation rate of a technological domain depends on the innovation rate of the technological domains it relies on. Using data on US patents from 1836 to 2017, we make out-of-sample predictions and fond that the predictability of innovation rates can be...

Economic shocks due to COVID-19 were exceptional in their severity, suddenness and heterogeneity across industries. To study the upstream and downstream propagation of these industry-specific demand and supply shocks, we build a dynamic input-output model inspired by previous work on the...

Natural and anthropogenic disasters frequently affect both the supply and demand side of an economy. A striking recent example is the COVID-19 pandemic which has created severe industry-specific disruptions to economic output in most countries. Since firms are embedded in production networks,...