improving the forecasts, given the local nature of the real-estate markets. The forecast accuracy of different predictors is … sample size, the combinations of individual forecast do not improve the forecast accuracy. On average, the forecast …

the forecasts, given the local nature of real-estate markets. The forecast accuracy of different predictors is tested in a … confidence at the national level, consumer confidence, and price-to-rent ratios. Even better forecast precision can be achieved … by combining individual forecasts. On average, the forecast improvements attain about 20%, measured by reduction in RMSFE …

approach is based on combination of the Cumulated Sum of Squared Forecast Error Differential (CSSFED) suggested earlier in …

distribution of the forecast errors made by the institutes, and then fit a skewed t-distribution to the estimated quantiles. We use … the resulting density forecasts to compute the log probability score of the predicted forecast errors. Based on an …

research institutes when they formed their forecasts helps to explain the ex-post realized forecast errors. We identify the … that several topics have predictive value for the forecast errors. …

possible to detect when using full-sample estimation information. On average, the forecast improvements attain about 20 …In this paper, we evaluate the forecasting ability of 145 indicators and ten types of forecast combination schemes to … facilitate substantial improvements of the forecasts, given the local nature of the real-estate markets. The forecast accuracy of …

effects helps substantially improve the forecast performance compared to the individual autoregressive models estimated for … even more pronounced at longer forecasting horizons (the forecast accuracy gain as measured by the root mean squared … forecast error is about 9% at 1-year horizon and exceeds 40% at 5-year horizon). Hence, we strongly recommend incorporating …

Swiss GDP. We find that the factor model offers a substantial improvement in forecast accuracy of GDP growth rates compared … to a benchmark naive constant-growth model at all forecast horizons and at all data vintages. The largest forecast …