We compared forecasts of stock market volatility based on real-time and revised macroeconomic data. To this end, we … used a new dataset on monthly real-time macroeconomic variables for Germany. The dataset covers the period 1994-2005. We … used a statistical, a utility-based, and an options-based criterion to evaluate volatility forecasts. Our main result is …

This paper elaborates on the link between financial market volatility and real economic activity. Using monthly data … for Germany from 1968 to 1998, we specify GARCH models to capture the variability of stock market prices, of the real … the future stance of the business cycle and on the volatility of industrial production. The results of our empirical …

We analyze the interaction of stock market movements and politics in Germany. In contrast to the empirical evidence …