the forecast bias. In contrast to the existing literature, we use forecasts submitted by individual FOMC members to …

that the shape of the loss function varies across countries. The loss function becomes more asymmetric as the forecast …

-herd and thereby, tend to intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus forecast. The extent of anti-herding seems … to vary over time. For Canada and the United States, we found that more prounounced anti-herding leads to lower forecast …

-herd and, thereby, tend to intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus forecast. The extent of anti … forecast accuracy. -- Housing starts ; Forecasting ; Herding …

distribution of the forecast errors made by the institutes, and then fit a skewed t-distribution to the estimated quantiles. We use … the resulting density forecasts to compute the log probability score of the predicted forecast errors. Based on an …

research institutes when they formed their forecasts helps to explain the ex-post realized forecast errors. We identify the … that several topics have predictive value for the forecast errors. …

the forecast bias. In contrast to the existing literature, we use forecasts submitted by individual FOMC members to …

the forecast bias. In contrast to the existing literature, we use forecasts submitted by individual FOMC members to …