Economic theory predicts that, in a small open economy, the dynamics of the real price of gold should be linked to real interest rates and the rate of change of the real exchange rate. Using data for Australia, we use a real-time forecasting approach to analyze whether real interest rates and...

Economic theory predicts that, in a small open economy, the dynamics of the real price of a commodity should be linked to a large-country real interest rate and fluctuations of the real exchange rate. Using data for Australia, we test this prediction using an out-ofsample forecasting experiment....

Models recently studied by Farmer (2012, 2013, 2015) predict that, due to labor-market frictions and "animal spirits", stock-market fluctuations should Granger cause fluctuations of the unemployment rate. We performed several Granger-causality tests on more than half a century of data of German...