We compared forecasts of stock market volatility based on real-time and revised macroeconomic data. To this end, we … used a statistical, a utility-based, and an options-based criterion to evaluate volatility forecasts. Our main result is … that the statistical and economic value of volatility forecasts based on real-time data is comparable to the value of …

We examine the predictive value of expected skewness of oil returns for the realized volatility using monthly data from … structural breaks. In-sample results show that the predictive impact of expected skewness on realized volatility can be both … positive and negative, with these signs contingent on the quantiles of realized volatility. Moreover, we detected statistically …