We use Bayesian additive regression trees to reexamine the efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts for Germany. To … reject the strong form of forecasts efficiency and find evidence against the weak form of forecast efficiency for longer …-term growth and longer-term inflation forecasts. We cannot reject weak efficiency of short-term growth and inflation forecasts. We …

We study the efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts published by three leading German economic research … research institutes when they formed their forecasts helps to explain the ex-post realized forecast errors. We identify the … that several topics have predictive value for the forecast errors. …

distribution of the forecast errors made by the institutes, and then fit a skewed t-distribution to the estimated quantiles. We use … the resulting density forecasts to compute the log probability score of the predicted forecast errors. Based on an …

the forecast bias. In contrast to the existing literature, we use forecasts submitted by individual FOMC members to …

sentiment-based variables, we examine the predictive value of realized moments across alternative forecast horizons and across … significantly improve the predictive value of the estimated forecasting models at intermediate forecast horizons and across …