In this paper we analyze the Chilean Consumer Price Index (CPI) with respect to ten price indexes representing the average price faced by ten different income groups. We construct these indexes using information from two versions of the Household Expenditure Survey: that obtained for the period...

It is well known that weighted averages of two competing forecasts may reduce Mean Squared Prediction Errors (MSPE) and may also introduce certain inefficiencies. In this paper we take an in-depth view of one particular type of inefficiency stemming from simple combination schemes. We identify...

In this article we explore the existence, robustness and size of the contribution that several activity measures make when predicting inflation in Chile. For that purpose, we use backward-looking Phillips curves and make use of a real-time database to get an evaluation of predictive ability...

In this paper we evaluate the Central Bank of Chile annual GDP growth forecasts over the period 1991-2009 using a real-time database. We compare the Central Bank of Chile forecasts with those of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), Consensus Forecasts, and simple time-series models. We...

Communication with the public is an ever-growing practice among central banks and complements their decisions of interest rate setting. In this paper we examine one feature of the communicational practice of the Central Bank of Chile (CBC) which summarizes the assessment of the Board about the...

We show that some standard measures of inflation persistence in Chile have increased sharply in recent years. For the sample period between August 1998 and July 2008 we found that the half life of a shock to headline inflation is about 3 years. This is much higher that the half life of about 1...

: This work presents a review of the main indicators used in the technical analysis of the peso-dollar parity. We explain the interpretations carried out by technical analysts of these indicators and perform forecasting analysis of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to predict exchange rate...

In this paper the neoclassical convergence hypothesis is tested for the thirteen regions of Chile using crosssection and time-series techniques. Cross-section analysis in combination with a Bayesian Modeling Averaging strategy supports the convergence hypothesis, despite of some instability...

In this paper we define a family of tests for the Martingale Difference Hypothesis (MDH) based upon a shrinkage principle. Tests within this family are such that rejection of the null implies that forecasts from the alternative model, adjusted by a shrinkage factor, will display lower Mean...

In this paper we evaluate exchange rate predictability using a new framework developed by Giacomini and White (2004). In this new framework we test for conditional predictive ability rather than for unconditional predictive ability, which has been the usual approach thus far. Using several...