This paper proposes a paradigm shift in the valuation of long term contracts, away from classical no-arbitrage pricing towards pricing under the real world probability measure. In contrast to risk neutral pricing, which is a form of relative pricing, the long term average excess return of the...

Many pension funds and life insurers seek to hedge their exposure to low interest rates using long-dated interest rate derivatives. This paper extends an approach of Platen and Heath 2006 to price and hedge long-dated interest rate derivatives using a combination of Australian cash, bonds and...