This paper argues that the sometimes-conflicting results of a modern revisionist literature on data mining in econometrics reflect different approaches to solving the central problem of model uncertainty in a science of non-experimental data. The literature has entered an exciting phase with...

This paper tests the well-established finding in the literature that SA firms are significantly more profitable and operate in a highly concentrated market, relative to that of their foreign counterparts. In particular we question the conclusions drawn by Aghion, Braun, and Fedderke (2008) who...

Central bank communication is widely recognised as crucial to the implementation of monetary policy. This communication should enhance a central bank’s management of the inflation expectations of the financial markets as well as the general public – the latter being a part of the central...

The pre-crisis monetary policy consensus has been challenged on a number of fronts. Even the nominal target, around which the modern consensus developed, has been called into question, with a vigorous recent debate ensuing about nominal income targeting as an alternative. This paper contributes...

An extraordinary consensus on the goals and conduct of monetary has been undermined by the international financial crisis and the faltering recovery in many economies. There is an evident need to pay closer attention to developments of asset markets and in the financial sector, which has opened...

Several empirical studies have found that fiscal policy has been sustainable in South Africa since 1960. This paper complements these studies by providing perspective on the manner in which fiscal sustainability was maintained. It discusses two episodes of significant increases and one period of...

This paper considers the role of fiscal policy as a component of stabilisation policy in South Africa. The South African economy – like many others, most notably the United States – has experienced considerable economic stability over the last decade. At stake in this paper is whether fiscal...

This paper builds on an earlier work in business cycle theory - explicitly in the classical cycle tradition of Burns and Mitchell (1946) and the more recent work by Harding and Pagan (e.g.: 2002a; 2005b; 2005a) - to identify and analyse business cycles in emerging market economies. The goal is to revisit...

This paper uses an SVAR approach to discuss the cyclicality of fiscal and monetary policy in South Africa since 1994. There is substantial South African literature on this topic, but much disagreement remains. Though not undisputed, there is growing consensus that monetary policy has contributed...

South Africa's democratic transition in 1994 created expectations of a dramatic turnaround in the economic performance. Trade and financial sanctions and internal political opposition to the apartheid government had contributed to the poorest ten-year growth performance (1984 - 1993) since the...