The rational expectations revolution made clear that a complete macro model requires a specification of the government's economic policy. We argue that monetary policy should be conducted in such a way that the market can predict policy actions. An implication of market success in predicting...

The Shadow Open Market Committee was formed in 1973 in response to rising inflation and the apparent unwillingness of U.S. policymakers to implement policies necessary to maintain price stability. This paper describes how the Committee's policy views differed from those of most Federal Reserve...

Formal data don't tell policy-makers everything they need to know about the economy. The Federal Open Market Committee also pays attention to anecdotes gathered from the front lines of business.

Presentation to the Missouri Bankers Association Senior Bank Management Conference, Acapulco, Mexico - Jan. 15, 2001

Presentation at the University of Missouri-Columbia - Nov. 4, 1999

Presentation at the HM Treasury/GES Conference, London, Nov. 30, 2005

Presentation to the Reflections on Monetary Policy: 25 Years After October 1979 a conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Mo., Oct. 8, 2004

Presentation at Cato Institute, Washington, D.C., Oct. 14, 2005

Presentation at the University of Washington, Seattle, Oct. 4, 2005