"This paper develops a new approach to change-point modeling that allows for an unknown number of change points in the observed sample. Our model assumes that regime durations have a Poisson distribution. The model approximately nests the two most common approaches: the time-varying parameter...

The U.S. business cycle expansion that started in March 1991 is the longest on record. This paper uses statistical techniques to examine whether this expansion is a onetime unique event or whether its length is a result of a change in the stability of the U.S. economy. Bayesian methods are used...

Remarks at the Barclays 16th Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference, New York City.

Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York, New York City.>

Remarks before the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City

The standard linear technique of impulse response function analysis is extended to the nonlinear case by defining a generalized impulse response function. Measures of persistence and asymmetry in response are constructed for a wide class of time series.