EuroMInd-D is a density estimate of monthly gross domestic product (GDP) constructed according to a bottom-up approach, pooling the density estimates of eleven GDP components, by output and expenditure type. The components density estimates are obtained from a medium-size dynamic factor model of...

EuroMInd-D is a density estimate of monthly gross domestic product (GDP) constructed according to a bottom–up approach, pooling the density estimates of eleven GDP components, by output and expenditure type. The components density estimates are obtained from a medium-size dynamic factor model...

We address the problem of selecting the common factors that are relevant for forecasting macroeconomic variables. In economic forecasting using diffusion indexes the factors are ordered, according to their importance, in terms of relative variability, and are the same for each variable to...

We extend a recently proposed Bayesian model selection technique, known as stochastic model specification search, for characterising the nature of the trend in macroeconomic time series. In particular, we focus on autoregressive models with possibly time-varying intercept and slope and decide on...

In this chapter we consider a class of parametric spectrum estimators based on a generalized linear model for exponential random variables with power link. The power transformation of the spectrum of a stationary process can be expanded in a Fourier series, with the coefficients representing...

The exponential model for the spectrum of a time series and its fractional extensions are based on the Fourier series expansion of the logarithm of the spectral density. The coefficients of the expansion form the cepstrum of the time series. After deriving the cepstrum of important classes of...

We address the problem of selecting the common factors that are relevant for forecasting macroeconomic variables. In economic forecasting using diffusion indexes the factors are ordered, according to their importance, in terms of relative variability, and are the same for each variable to...

EuroMInd-D is a density estimate of monthly gross domestic product (GDP) constructed according to a bottom–up approach, pooling the density estimates of eleven GDP components, by output and expenditure type. The components density estimates are obtained from a medium-size dynamic factor model...

The exponential model for the spectrum of a time series and its fractional extensions are based on the Fourier series expansion of the logarithm of the spectral density. The coefficients of the expansion form the cepstrum of the time series. After deriving the cepstrum of important classes of...

The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition defines the trend component in terms of the eventual forecast function, as the value the series would take if it were on its long-run path. The paper introduces the multistep Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, which arises when the forecast function is obtained by...