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We propose a method for comparing density forecasts that is based on weighted versions of the continuous ranked probability score. The weighting emphasizes regions of interest, such as the tails or the center of a variable's range, while retaining propriety, as opposed to a recently developed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010710927
Linear pooling is by far the most popular method for combining probability forecasts. However, any non-trivial weighted average of two or more distinct, calibrated probability forecasts is necessarily uncalibrated and lacks sharpness. In view of this, linear pooling requires recalibration, even...
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