Hamilton identifies 1973 to 1996 as “the age of OPEC” and 1997 to the present as “a new industrial age.” During 1974-1996 growth in non-OPEC oil production Granger causes growth in OPEC oil production. OPEC oil production decreases significantly with positive shocks to non-OPEC oil...

Movement in China’s money supply is shown to drive the movement in world money supply over the last twenty years. Structural shocks to G3 (U.S., Eurozone and Japan) real M2 and to China’s real M2 are both large over 1996:1-2011:12. The cumulative impact of real G3 M2 shocks on real oil...

This paper examines the effect of oil price on coal sector stock returns. A multifactor market model is used to estimate the expected excess returns to the coal sector. A 1% increase in oil price return has a statistically significant positive impact on coal sector returns of between 0.06% and...

This paper investigates the influence of liquidity shocks in China on the U.S. economy over 1996-2012. The influence on the U.S. is through China’s influence on demand for imports, particularly that of commodities. In all models estimated a positive innovation in China’s liquidity is...

Movement in China's money supply is shown to drive the movement in world money supply over the last fifteen years. Structural shocks to G3 (U.S., Eurozone and Japan) real M2 and to China's real M2 are both large over 1996:1–2011:12. The cumulative impact of real G3 M2 shocks on real oil prices...

Hamilton identifies 1973 to 1996 as “the age of OPEC” and 1997 to the present as “a new industrial age.” During 1974-1996 growth in non-OPEC oil production Granger causes growth in OPEC oil production. OPEC oil production decreases significantly with positive shocks to non-OPEC oil...